http://blog.china.com:80/u/080105/110789/ 通往金融王国的自由之路 火线FX988 火线FX988 http://blog.china.com:80/u/080105/110789/200801/1849319.html <![CDATA[ <P><FONT size=3><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>严酷的现实惊醒了贝尔斯通</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>也震动了整个华尔街</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">.</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>要知道</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>价值</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">7500</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>亿美元的</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">CDO</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>们正作为抵押品呆在商业银行的资产负债表上</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">.</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>他们目前的伎俩就是将这些</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">CDO</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>资产转移到表外资产</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">(Off Balance Sheet)</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>上</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>因为在这里这些</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">CDO</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>能够以内部数学模型计算价格</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>而不必采用市场价格。华尔街的银行家们此时只有一个信念</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>决不能在市场上公开拍卖</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">!</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>因为这将把</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">CDO</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>的真实价格暴露在光天化日之下</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>人们将会看到这些泡沫资产的实际价格非但不是财务报表公布的</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">120%</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>或</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">150%,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>而很可能是</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">50%</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>甚至</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">30%.</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>一旦市场价格被爆光</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>那么所有投资于</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">CDO</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>市场的各类大小基金都将不得不重新审核它们的资产账目</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>巨额亏损将再也难以掩盖</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>横扫整个世界<A href="javascript.:;" target=_self nclick="javascript.:tagshow(event, '%BD%F0%C8%DA');"><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333></FONT></STRONG></U></A><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%BD%F0%C8%DA');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>金融</STRONG></U></A></FONT></STRONG></U>市场的空前风暴必然降临。到</FONT></SPAN><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="19" month="7" year="2001"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">7</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>月</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">19</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>日</FONT></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>贝尔斯通的两个下属对冲基金已经</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">“</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>没有什么价值残留了</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">”</SPAN><FONT face=宋体><SPAN>。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><?xml:namespace prefix = o /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></FONT></P> <P><FONT size=3><FONT face=宋体><SPAN>　　</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></FONT></P> <P><FONT size=3><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>资产毒垃圾是谁的风险</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">?</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P> <P><FONT size=3><FONT face=宋体><SPAN>　　</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></FONT></P> <P><FONT size=3><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>究竟谁持有资产毒垃圾呢</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">?</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>这是一个华尔街非常敏感的问题</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">.</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>据估计到</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">2006</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>年底</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>对冲基金手上持有</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">10%,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>退休基金持有</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">18%,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>保险公司持有</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">19%,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>资产管理公司有</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">22%</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>当然还有外国投资者</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">.</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>他们也是</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">MBS, CDS</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>和</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">CDO</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>市场的生力军</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">. 2003</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>年以来</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>外资金融机构在<A href="javascript.:;" target=_self nclick="javascript.:tagshow(event, '%D6%D0%B9%FA');"><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333></FONT></STRONG></U></A><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%D6%D0%B9%FA');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>中国</STRONG></U></A></FONT></STRONG></U></FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">“</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>隆重推出</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">”</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>的各种</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">“</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>结构性投资产品</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">”</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>中有多少被这些</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">“</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>资产毒垃圾</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">”</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>所污染</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>恐怕只有天知道了</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">.</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P> <P><FONT size=3><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>　　<A href="javascript.:;" target=_self nclick="javascript.:tagshow(event, '%B9%FA%BC%CA');"><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333></FONT></STRONG></U></A><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%B9%FA%BC%CA');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>国际</STRONG></U></A></FONT></STRONG></U>清算银行最近警告称：</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">“</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>美国次级抵押贷款市场的问题愈发凸显，但还不清楚这些问题会如何渗透到整个<A href="javascript.:;" target=_self nclick="javascript.:tagshow(event, '%D0%C5%B4%FB');"><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333></FONT></STRONG></U></A><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%D0%C5%B4%FB');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>信贷</STRONG></U></A></FONT></STRONG></U>市场。</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">”</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>这个</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">“</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>还不清楚</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">”</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>是否是暗示</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">CDO</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>市场可能崩盘</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">?</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>次级贷款和</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">ALT-A</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>贷款以及建筑在其之上的</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">CDO</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>、</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">CDS</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>与合成</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">CDO</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>的总规模至少在</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">3</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>万亿美元以上</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">.</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>难怪近来国际清算银行强烈警告世界可能会面临</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">20</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>世纪</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">30</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>年代大萧条</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">.</SPAN><FONT face=宋体><SPAN>该行还认为，今后几个月全球的信贷领域的景气周期将发生趋势性的转变。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></FONT></P> <P><FONT size=3><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>　　从<A href="javascript.:;" target=_self nclick="javascript.:tagshow(event, '%C3%C0%C1%AA%B4%A2');"><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333></FONT></STRONG></U></A><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%C3%C0%C1%AA%B4%A2');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>美联储</STRONG></U></A></FONT></STRONG></U>官员的言论来看，政策制定者并不认同金融市场对于次级贷款市场的担忧</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>并不预期其影响将在<A href="javascript.:;" target=_self nclick="javascript.:tagshow(event, '%BE%AD%BC%C3');"><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333></FONT></STRONG></U></A><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%BE%AD%BC%C3');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>经济</STRONG></U></A></FONT></STRONG></U>中蔓延。<A href="javascript.:;" target=_self nclick="javascript.:tagshow(event, '%B2%AE%C4%CF%BF%CB');"><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333></FONT></STRONG></U></A><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%B2%AE%C4%CF%BF%CB');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>伯南克</STRONG></U></A></FONT></STRONG></U>曾于</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">2</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>月底表示，次级贷款是个很关键的问题，但没有迹象表明正在向主要贷款市场蔓延，整体市场似乎依然健康。随后无论投资者还是官员们，都对次级贷款危机扩散的潜在风险避而不谈。回避问题并不能消除问题</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>人民在现实生活中不断地触摸到了即将来临的危机</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">.</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>如果政府托管的各类基金在资产抵押市场中损失惨重</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>后果就是老百姓每天都可能面对</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">3000</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>美元的交通罚单</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">.</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>如果养老基金损失了</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>最终大家只有延长退休年龄</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">.</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>要是保险公司赔了呢</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>各种保险费用就会上涨</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">.</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P> <P><FONT size=3><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>　　总之</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>华尔街的金融创新的规律是</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>赢了银行家拿天文数字的奖金</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>输了是纳税人和外国人埋单</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">.</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>而无论输赢</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>在</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">“</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>金融创新过程</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">”</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>中被银行系统反复、循环和高倍抵押的债务所创造出的巨额债务<A href="javascript.:;" target=_self nclick="javascript.:tagshow(event, '%BB%F5%B1%D2');"><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333></FONT></STRONG></U></A><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%BB%F5%B1%D2');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>货币</STRONG></U></A></FONT></STRONG></U>及通货膨胀这一必然后果</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>则悄悄地重新瓜分着全世界人民创造出来的财富</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">.</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>难怪这个世界贫富分化会越来越严重</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>也就难怪这个世界会越来越不和谐</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">.</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P> <P><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><A href="javascript.:;" target=_self><STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><SPAN lang=EN-US><U><FONT size=3></FONT></U></SPAN></SPAN></STRONG></A><STRONG><U><FONT size=3><A href="javascript.:;" target=_self nclick="javascript.:tagshow(event, '%CD%E2%BB%E3');"><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333></FONT></STRONG></U></A><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%CD%E2%BB%E3');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>外汇</STRONG></U></A></FONT></STRONG></U></FONT></U></STRONG></SPAN><FONT size=3><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>投资公司</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">:</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>要不要帮华尔街救火</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">?</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P> <P><FONT size=3><FONT face=宋体><SPAN>　　</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></FONT></P> <P><FONT size=3><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>由次级按揭贷款内爆引着的大火已经蔓延到资产毒垃圾</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">CDO</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>这个纸糊的大厦之上了</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>在火烧眉毛的时候</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>满头大汗的美国住房与城市发展部部长阿方索</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">·</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>杰克逊于</FONT></SPAN><st1:chsdate w:st="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="13" month="7" year="2001"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">7</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>月</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">13</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>日</FONT></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>从消防第一线赶到<A href="javascript.:;" target=_self nclick="javascript.:tagshow(event, '%B1%B1%BE%A9');"><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333></FONT></STRONG></U></A><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%B1%B1%BE%A9');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>北京</STRONG></U></A></FONT></STRONG></U></FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">.</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>喘息未定的部长大人避而不谈火灾灾情</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>而是极度真诚地为中国多余的美元出路献计献策</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">.</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>部长先生先是大夸中国朋友够意思</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>从</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">2003</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>年到</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">2006</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>年短短</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">3</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>年的时间</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>中国投资者持有的美国</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">MBS</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>债券总额就由不足</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">30</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>亿美元狂涨了</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">30</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>多倍</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>到现在拥有了</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">1070</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>亿美元</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>中国投资者比任何其他国家的投资者持有的美国按揭抵押债券都多。然<st1:personname w:st="on" productid="后部长">后部长</st1:personname>先生又热忱地期待中国朋友进一步慷慨解囊</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>继续将友谊的热度推向新的高峰</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">.</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>他还特别指出</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">, “</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>对中国来说，这是一笔划算的投资，在信用风险相同的情况下，按揭抵押债券比传统的美国政府债券回报更高。</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">”</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>只是不知这个</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">“</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>信用风险相同</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">”</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>是不是指穆迪们开出的</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>正被人告上法庭的</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">AAA</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>评级呢</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">?</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P> <P><FONT size=3><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>　　中国今后大概不能再实心实意地迷信穆迪们的评级了</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>对于华尔街投资银行的如簧巧舌恐怕也需要</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">“</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>听其言</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>观其行</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">”.</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>外汇投资公司可能需要加强一下资产选择甄别的工作</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>并且在委托国际资产管理公司进行投资之后</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>需要进行全程密切监督</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">.</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P> <P><FONT size=3><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>　　对于外汇投资公司而言</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>问题的关键在于现在要不要帮华尔街去救火</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">.</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>以现在火势蔓延的速度而言</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>如果投进次级</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">MBS</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>或</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">CDO</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>市场的话</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>这些钱恐怕会凶多吉少</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>舍己救人</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>被华尔街追封为</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">“</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>烈士</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">”,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>到底是否合算</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">?</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>当然</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>有时侯不能只算经济账</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>如果其它方面能够获得实实在在的重大国家利益补偿</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>必要的利益交换也是可以考虑的</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>不过补贴就要补在明处</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">.</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P> <P><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">&nbsp;</SPAN></FONT><FONT size=3><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>本文内容转载自</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><A href="http://www.fx998.com/"><SPAN style="COLOR: windowtext"><U>www.fx998.com</U></SPAN></A>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>原文地址</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><A href="http://www.fx998.cn/"><SPAN style="COLOR: windowtext"><U>www.fx998.cn</U></SPAN></A><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P> <DIV></DIV>]]> 星期四, 31 一月 2008 07:45:11 GMT http://blog.china.com:80/u/080105/110789/200801/1849319.html 2008-01-31T07:45:11Z http://blog.china.com:80/u/080105/110789/200801/1849314.html <![CDATA[ <DIV> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 对此</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">穆迪反驳道</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">简直荒谬</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">. “</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">我们的意见是客观的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">而且没有强迫大家去买和卖</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">穆迪的逻辑是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">就像影评家一样</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">我们称赞</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">满城都是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><A href="javascript.:;" target=_self><STRONG><U><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><SPAN lang=EN-US></SPAN></SPAN></U></STRONG></A><STRONG><U><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%BB%C6%BD%F0');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>黄金</STRONG></U></A></U></STRONG></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">甲</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">并不意味着强迫你去买票看这部电影</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">换句话说</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">我们只是说说</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">你们别当真啊</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">当不透明的产品而言</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">市场信赖并依靠评级公司的评价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">怎可一推六二五</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">完全不认账呢</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">?</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">再说</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">如果没有</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">AAA</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">这样的评级</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">大型退休基金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">保险基金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">教育基金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">政府托管基金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">外国机构投资基金又怎会大量认购呢</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">?</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">一切都建立在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">AAA</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的评级基础之上</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">要是这个评级有问题</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">这些基金所涉及的数千亿美元的投资组合也就危在旦夕了。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><?xml:namespace prefix = o /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">　　其实</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">资产评级推动着所有的游戏环节。贝尔斯登掀开的只是序幕。最近</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">华尔街五大投行之一的贝尔斯登旗下从事次级房贷的两只对冲基金出现巨额亏损。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">High-Grade</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">基金在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2007</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年前四个月下跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">，而同期</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">Enhanced Leverage</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">基金下跌约</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">23%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">。由于这两只基金都亏损促使追缴保证金和投资者赎回情况发生。贝尔斯登在这两只基金的投资不过</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">万美元，从公司外部筹集的资金则超过了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">亿美元。利用财务杠杆，两只基金举债</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">90</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">亿美元，并控制了超过</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">200</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">亿美元的投资，大多为次级抵押贷款支持债券构成的资产毒垃圾</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">。其实</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">在贝尔斯登出事之前</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">就有许多投资者和监管部门开始调查投资银行和对冲基金持有资产的定价问题</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">. “</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">金融会计标准协会</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”(Financial Accounting Standard Board)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">开始要求必须以</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">公平<A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%BC%DB%B8%F1');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>价格</STRONG></U></A></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">计算资产</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">退出价格</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”(Exit Price)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">而不是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">进入价格</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">” (EnterPrice)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">。所谓</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">退出价格</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">就是出售资产的市场价格</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">而目前投行和对冲基金则普遍使用的价格是内部设计的数学公式化</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">推算</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">出来的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">由于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%BD%BB%D2%D7');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>交易</STRONG></U></A>极为罕见</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">所以非常缺乏可靠的市场价格信息。投资人向</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">个中间商询问</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">报价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">很可能得到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">种不同的价格。华尔街有意保持该市场的不透明</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">以赚取高额的手续费。当大家有钱赚的时候</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">自然是皆大欢喜</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">一旦出事</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">则争相夺路而逃</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">此时</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">西方社会平常的谦谦君子将撕下各种伪装</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">贝尔斯登与美林的关系就是如此。</SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </P> <P style="TEXT-INDENT: 24pt"><FONT face=宋体><FONT size=3><SPAN>贝尔斯通的两大对冲</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><A href="javascript.:;" target=_self><STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><SPAN lang=EN-US><U></U></SPAN></SPAN></STRONG></A><STRONG><U><A href="javascript.:;" target=_self nclick="javascript.:tagshow(event, '%BB%F9%BD%F0');"><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333></FONT></STRONG></U></A><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%BB%F9%BD%F0');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>基金</STRONG></U></A></FONT></STRONG></U></U></STRONG></SPAN></FONT><SPAN><FONT size=3>据报道是在</FONT></SPAN></FONT><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">“</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>次级</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">MBS</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体><A href="javascript.:;" target=_self nclick="javascript.:tagshow(event, '%CA%D0%B3%A1');"><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333></FONT></STRONG></U></A><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%CA%D0%B3%A1');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>市场</STRONG></U></A></FONT></STRONG></U>上押错了宝导致巨额亏损</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">”,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>正确是解读应该是它们在高纯度浓缩型毒垃圾</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">“</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>合成</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">CDO”</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>中扮演了不幸承受违约风险的一方而</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">“</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>站在了历史错误的一边</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">”,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>而转嫁风险的一方也许就是包括它的本家在内的<A href="javascript.:;" target=_self nclick="javascript.:tagshow(event, '%CD%B6%D7%CA');"><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333></FONT></STRONG></U></A><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%CD%B6%D7%CA');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>投资</STRONG></U></A></FONT></STRONG></U><A href="javascript.:;" target=_self nclick="javascript.:tagshow(event, '%D2%F8%D0%D0');"><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333></FONT></STRONG></U></A><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%D2%F8%D0%D0');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>银行</STRONG></U></A></FONT></STRONG></U>们。截至今年</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">3</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>月</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">31</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>日，贝尔斯登的两只基金控制的资产还高达</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">200</SPAN><FONT face=宋体><SPAN>亿</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><A href="javascript.:;" target=_self><STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><SPAN lang=EN-US><U></U></SPAN></SPAN></STRONG></A><STRONG><U><A href="javascript.:;" target=_self nclick="javascript.:tagshow(event, '%C3%C0%D4%AA');"><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333></FONT></STRONG></U></A><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%C3%C0%D4%AA');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>美元</STRONG></U></A></FONT></STRONG></U></U></STRONG></SPAN><SPAN>以上</SPAN></FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">, 7</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>月初两只基金的资产已缩水</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">20%</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>左右。由此，这些基金的债权人也纷纷谋求撤资。最大债权人之一的美林公司在反复讨债不果的情况下急火攻心方寸大乱</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>悍然宣布将开始拍卖贝尔斯通基金持有的超过</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">8</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>亿美元的<A href="javascript.:;" target=_self nclick="javascript.:tagshow(event, '%B4%FB%BF%EE');"><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333></FONT></STRONG></U></A><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%B4%FB%BF%EE');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>贷款</STRONG></U></A></FONT></STRONG></U>抵押债券。之前美林曾表示，在贝尔斯登的对冲基金宣布调整资本结构的计划之前，不会出售这些资产。几天后美林拒绝了贝尔斯登提出的重组方案。贝尔斯登又提出增资</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">15</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>亿美元的紧急计划，但并未得到债权人的认可。美林准备先出售常规<A href="javascript.:;" target=_self nclick="javascript.:tagshow(event, '%D6%A4%C8%AF');"><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333></FONT></STRONG></U></A><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%D6%A4%C8%AF');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>证券</STRONG></U></A></FONT></STRONG></U>，然后还计划出售相关的衍生产品。同时，高盛、摩根大通和<A href="javascript.:;" target=_self nclick="javascript.:tagshow(event, '%C3%C0%B9%FA');"><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333></FONT></STRONG></U></A><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%C3%C0%B9%FA');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>美国</STRONG></U></A></FONT></STRONG></U>银行等据称也赎回了相应的基金份额。让所有人惊慌的是</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>公开的拍卖上只有</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">1/4</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>的债券有人询价</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>而且<A href="javascript.:;" target=_self nclick="javascript.:tagshow(event, '%BC%DB%B8%F1');"><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333></FONT></STRONG></U></A><U><STRONG><FONT color=#333333><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%BC%DB%B8%F1');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>价格</STRONG></U></A></FONT></STRONG></U>仅为票面价值的</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">85%</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>到</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">90%.</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>这可是贝尔斯通基金最精华的</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">AAA</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>评级部分了</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>如果连这些优质资产都要亏</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">15%</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>以上的话</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>再想到其它根本没有人问津的</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">BBB-</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>以下的毒垃圾</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">CDO</SPAN><SPAN><FONT face=宋体>简直就魂飞魄散</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">,</SPAN><FONT face=宋体><SPAN>整个亏损规模将不堪设想。</SPAN></FONT></FONT></P></SPAN></DIV>]]> 星期四, 31 一月 2008 07:44:37 GMT http://blog.china.com:80/u/080105/110789/200801/1849314.html 2008-01-31T07:44:37Z http://blog.china.com:80/u/080105/110789/200801/1849301.html <![CDATA[ <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">　投行当然是洞悉了对冲基金经理的内心活动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">才能设计出如此</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">体贴入微</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">投行的角色就是刺激和利用对方的贪婪</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">自己却几乎永远立于不败之地</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">而对冲基金就得看自己的运气了。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><?xml:namespace prefix = o /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">　　华尔街<A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%BD%F0%C8%DA');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>金融</STRONG></U></A>创新的想象力似乎是没有尽头的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">除了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO, CDS,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">合成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">他们还发明出基于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">之上的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“CDO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">平方</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”(CDO^2), “CDO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">立方</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”(CDO^3), “CDO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">N</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">次方</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”(CDO^N)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">等新产品。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">Fitch</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的统计显示</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">, 2006</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年信用类衍生<A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%CA%D0%B3%A1');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>市场</STRONG></U></A>达到了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">50</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">万亿</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><A href="javascript.:;" target=_self><STRONG><U><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><SPAN lang=EN-US></SPAN></SPAN></U></STRONG></A><STRONG><U><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%C3%C0%D4%AA');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>美元</STRONG></U></A></U></STRONG></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的惊人规模</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">从</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2003</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2006</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">这个市场爆炸性地成长了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">15</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">倍</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">!</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">目前</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">对冲基金已经成为信用类衍生市场的主力</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">独占</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">60%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的份额。另外</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">, BIS</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">统计显示</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2006</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年第四季度新发行了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">920</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">亿美元的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">合成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO”, 2007</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年第一季度发行量为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1210</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">亿美元的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">合成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO”,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">对冲基金占了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">33%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的市场份额。谁是这个高纯度浓缩型毒垃圾市场的主力呢</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">?</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">令人惊讶的结果表明是包括养老保险基金和外国投资人在内的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">保守型基金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">而且这些资金居然是集中投在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">合成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">之中最有毒的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">普通品合成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">之中。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">资产评级公司</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">:</FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">欺诈的同谋</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">&nbsp;</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">在所有的次级<A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%B4%FB%BF%EE');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>贷款</STRONG></U></A></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">MBS</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">债券中</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">大约有</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">75%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">得到了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">AAA</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的评级</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">, 10%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">得了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">AA,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">另外</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">得了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">A,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">仅有</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">被评为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">BBB</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">或更低。而实际情况是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,2006</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年第四季度次级贷款违约率达到了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">14.44%,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">今年第一季度更增加到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">15.75%.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">随着接近今明两年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">万亿美元的<A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%C0%FB%C2%CA');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>利率</STRONG></U></A>重设所必然造成的规模空前的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">月供惊魂</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">次级和</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">ALT-A</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">贷款市场必将出现更高比率的违约</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">从</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2006</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年底到现在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">已经有</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">100</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">多家次级贷款机构被迫关门。这仅仅是个开始</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%C3%C0%B9%FA');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>美国</STRONG></U></A>抵押银行家协会近日公布的调查报告显示</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">最终将可能有</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">20%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的次级贷款进入拍卖程序</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,220</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">万人失去他们的房屋。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">被穆迪、标准普尔等资产评级公司严重误导的各类大型基金投资人</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">以及监管部门纷纷将评级公司告上法庭</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="5" month="7" year="2007"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2007</FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><SPAN lang=EN-US>年</SPAN></SPAN><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><SPAN lang=EN-US>月</SPAN></SPAN><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">美国第三大退休基金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">–</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">俄亥俄警察与消防退休基金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(Ohio Police &amp; Fire Pension Fund)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">严重亏损的消息爆光</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">它的投资中有</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">投在了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">MBS</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">市场上</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">俄亥俄州的检察官马克</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">德安</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(Marc Dann)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">怒斥</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">这些评级公司在每笔次级贷款</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">MBS</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">生成的评级中都大赚其钱</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">他们持续给这些</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">资产毒垃圾</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">)AAA</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的评级</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">所以他们实际上是这些欺诈的同谋。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">　</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">　　</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">本文内容转载自</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><A href="http://www.fx998.com/"><U><FONT face="Times New Roman">www.fx998.com</FONT></U></A><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">原文地址</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><A href="http://www.fx998.cn/"><FONT face="Times New Roman" color=#000000>www.fx998.cn</FONT></A></SPAN></P> <DIV></DIV>]]> 星期四, 31 一月 2008 07:43:28 GMT http://blog.china.com:80/u/080105/110789/200801/1849301.html 2008-01-31T07:43:28Z http://blog.china.com:80/u/080105/110789/200801/1849284.html <![CDATA[ <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2005</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">一群华尔街和<A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%C2%D7%B6%D8');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>伦敦</STRONG></U></A>金融城的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">超级金融天才们</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">终于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">研制成功</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">一种基于信用违约掉期</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(CDS)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">之上的新的产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">:“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">合成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO”(Synthetic CDO)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">这种</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">高纯度浓缩型毒垃圾</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">资产</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">投资银行家们的天才思路是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">将付给</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDS</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">对家的违约保险金现金流集成起来</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">再次按照风险系数分装在不同的礼品盒中</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">再次去敲穆迪和标普们的大门</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">穆迪们沉思良久</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">深觉不妥</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">拿不到评级一切都是空谈</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">这可愁坏了投资银行家们。<SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">雷曼兄弟公司是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">合成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">领域中的当世顶尖高手</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">它麾下的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">金融科学家</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">们于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2006</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">月破解了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">高纯度浓缩型毒垃圾</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">中最有毒的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">普通品合成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO”(Equity Tranche)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的资产评级这一世界性难题</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">他们的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">创新</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">在于将</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">普通品合成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">资产所产生的现金流蓄积成一个备用的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">资金池</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">一旦出现违约情况</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">后备的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">资金池</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">将启动供应</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">现金流</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的紧急功能</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">这个中看不中用的办法对</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">普通品合成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">起到了信用加强的作用</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">终于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">穆迪们对这一</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">高纯度浓缩型毒垃圾</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">给出了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">AAA</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的评级。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">合成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">投资的吸引力达到了登峰造极的程度</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">它是如此光彩迷人</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">任何投资者都会有天使降临人间一般的错觉</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">想想看</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">以前投资</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">债券</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">为了得到现金流</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">你必须真金白银地投钱进去</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">而且必须承担可能出现的投资风险。现在你的钱可以不动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">仍然放在<SPAN lang=EN-US><A href="javascript.:;" target=_self><B><U><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue"><SPAN lang=EN-US></SPAN></SPAN></U></B></A><B><U><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%B9%C9%CA%D0');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>股市</STRONG></U></A></U></B></SPAN></SPAN>里或其它地方为你继续创造财富<SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">你只要承担一些风险就会得到稳定的现金流。比起</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDS</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">来说</SPAN><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">,</SPAN></FONT></P> <DIV> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">这是一个更有吸引力的选择</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">因为这个<A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%CD%B6%D7%CA');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>投资</STRONG></U></A>产品得到了穆迪和标普们</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">AAA</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的评级。不用出钱就能得到稳定的现金流</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">而且风险极小</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">因为它们是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">AAA</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">级别的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">合成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">结果不难想象</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">大批政府托管</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><A href="javascript.:;" target=_self><STRONG><U><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><SPAN lang=EN-US></SPAN></SPAN></U></STRONG></A><STRONG><U><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%BB%F9%BD%F0');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>基金</STRONG></U></A></U></STRONG></SPAN><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">养老基金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">教育基金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">保险基金经理们</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">还有大量的外国基金踊跃加入</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">在不动用他们基金一分钱的情况下</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">增加了整个基金的收益</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">当然还有他们自己的高额奖金。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">　　除了大型基金是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">合成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的重要买主之外</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">投资<A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%D2%F8%D0%D0');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>银行</STRONG></U></A>们还看中了酷爱高风险高回报的对冲基金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">他们为对冲基金量身定制了一种</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">零息债券</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”(Zero Coupon)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">合成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">产品。它与其它</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">合成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">最大的区别在于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">其它产品不需要投入资金就可以得到现金流</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">但致命的缺点是必须全时限地承担所有风险</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">这就有赔光全部投资的可能性</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">而</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">零息债券</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">型产品则是投入票面价值的一部分资金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">而且没有现金流收益</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">但是等</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">时限一到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">将可得到全部足额的票面价值</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">但要除掉违约损失和费用。这种本质上类似期权的产品将最大风险来个</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">先说断</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">后不乱</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">对冲基金最多输掉开始投入的一部分资金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">但万一没有出现违约</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">那可就赚大发了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">这个</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">万一</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的美好憧憬对对冲基金实在是无法抵御的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN></P></DIV> <DIV></DIV>]]> 星期四, 31 一月 2008 07:41:32 GMT http://blog.china.com:80/u/080105/110789/200801/1849284.html 2008-01-31T07:41:32Z http://blog.china.com:80/u/080105/110789/200801/1849276.html <![CDATA[ <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">投行们也是喜出望外</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">没想到啊没想到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">持有大量</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">浓缩型毒垃圾</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的对冲基金成了抢手货。由于抢眼的回报率</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">越来越多的投资者要求入伙对冲基金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">随着大量资金涌入</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">对冲基金竟然成了投行们的生财机器</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">对冲基金的基本特点就是高风险和高杠杆运做</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">既然手中的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">浓缩型毒垃圾</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”CDO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">资产眼看着膨胀起来</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">如果不好好利用一下高倍杠杆也对不起对冲基金的名头。<SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">于是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">对冲基金经理来找商业银行要求抵押贷款</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">抵押品嘛就是市场正当红的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">浓缩型毒垃圾</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”CDO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">。银行们对</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的大名也是如雷贯耳</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">于是欣然接受</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">作为抵押品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">然后发放贷款继续创造银行<A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%BB%F5%B1%D2');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>货币</STRONG></U></A></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">注意</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">这已经是银行系统第</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">N</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">次用同样的按揭的一部分债务来</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">偷印假钱</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">了。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 22.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">对冲基金向银行抵押贷款的杠杆比率为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">15</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">倍</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">!</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">当对冲基金拿到银行的钱</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">回过头来就向自己的本家投行买进更多的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">投行们再乐颠颠地完成更多毒垃圾</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">MBS</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">债券到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">提炼</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">在资产证券化的快速通道中</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">发行次级贷款的银行于是更快地得到更多的现金去套牢越来越多的次级贷款人。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">　　次级贷款银行负责生产</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">投资银行、房利美和房地美公司负责深加工和销售</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">资产评级公司是质量监督局</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">对冲基金负责仓储和批发</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">商业银行提供信贷</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">养老基金、政府托管基金、教育基金、保险基金、外国机构投资者就成了资产毒垃圾的最终消费者。这个过程的副产品则是流动性全球过剩和贫富分化。一个完美的资产毒垃圾生产链就这样形成了</SPAN><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">.</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">　　<A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%B9%FA%BC%CA');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>国际</STRONG></U></A>清算银行的统计是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">:2007</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年第一季度发行了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2500</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">亿<SPAN lang=EN-US><A href="javascript.:;" target=_self><B><U><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue"><SPAN lang=EN-US></SPAN></SPAN></U></B></A><B><U><A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%C3%C0%D4%AA');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>美元</STRONG></U></A></U></B></SPAN></SPAN>的<SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2005</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年全年是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2490</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">亿美元，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2004</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年全年是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1570</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">亿美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">　　<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">合成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO”:</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">高纯度浓缩型毒垃圾<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">&nbsp;</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">　　在某些情况下</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">投资银行出于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">职业道德</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">和增强投资人信心的广告目的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">自己手中也会保留一些</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">浓缩型毒垃圾</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">。为了使这部分剧毒资产也能创造出<A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%BE%AD%BC%C3');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>经济</STRONG></U></A>效益</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">绝顶聪明的投资银行家们又想出一条妙计。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">　　前面我们提到华尔街的一贯思路就是只要有未来的现金流</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">就要想办法做成证券。现在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">投行们手中的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">浓缩型毒垃圾</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">资产尚未出现严重的违约问题</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">每月的利息收益还算稳定</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">但未来很有可能会出现风险。怎么办呢</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">?</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">他们需要为这种不妙的前景找条出路</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">为将来的违约可能买一份保险</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">这就是信用违约掉期</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(CDS, Credit Default Swap)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">。在推出这样一种产品之前</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">投行们首先需要创造一种<SPAN lang=EN-US><A href="javascript.:;" target=_self><B><U><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue"><SPAN lang=EN-US>理论</SPAN></SPAN></U></B></A></SPAN>体系来解释其合理性</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">他们将</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的利息收入分解成两个独立的模块</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">一个是资金使用成本</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">另一个是违约风险成本</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">现在需要将违约风险模块转嫁到别人身上</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">为此需要支付一定的成本。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">　</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">如果有投资人愿意承担</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">违约风险</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">那他将得到投行们的分期支付的违约保险金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">对于投资人来说</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">这种分期支付的保险金现金流与普通债券的现金流看起来没有什么不同</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">这就是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDS</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">合约的主要内容</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">在这个过程中</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">承担风险的投资人并不需要出任何资金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">也不需要与被保险的资产有任何关系</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">他只需要承担</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CDO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">潜在的违约风险</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">就可以得到一笔分期支付的保险金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">由于信息不对称</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">普通投资人对违约风险的判断不如投行们更准确</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">所以很多人被表面的回报所吸引而忽视了潜在的风险。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">　　这时候</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">虽然</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">浓缩型毒垃圾</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">在理论上还留在了投行的手里</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">但其违约风险已经被转嫁给了别人</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">投行既得了面子</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">又得了里子。本来到此为止投行已经</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">功德圆满</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">但人的贪婪本性是没有止境的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">只要还没出事</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">游戏就还会用更加惊险的形式进行下去。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">　</SPAN></P>]]> 星期四, 31 一月 2008 07:40:46 GMT http://blog.china.com:80/u/080105/110789/200801/1849276.html 2008-01-31T07:40:46Z http://blog.china.com:80/u/080105/110789/200801/1849268.html <![CDATA[ <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">资产毒垃圾</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">生产链<SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">投资银行们拿出一部分</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">体己</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">银子敲锣打鼓地成立了独立的对冲基金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">然后将</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">浓缩型毒垃圾</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">从资产负债表上</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">剥离</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">给独立的对冲基金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">对冲基金则以</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">高价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">从</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">本是同根生</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的投行那里购进</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">浓缩型毒垃圾</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”CDO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">资产</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">这个</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">高价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">被记录在对冲基金的资产上作为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">进入<A onclick="javascript:tagshow(event, '%BC%DB%B8%F1');" href="javascript:;" target=_self><U><STRONG>价格</STRONG></U></A></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”(Enter Price).</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">于是投资银行从法律上完成了与</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Ti